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东仔----600477杭萧钢构

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发表于 2007-5-27 10:01:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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杭萧钢构是最近一段时间的热门股,在前段时间因为公司没披露安哥拉重大合同事项,公司高层被处罚,股价跳水,本人在17.25介入,但在公司发出安哥拉第一期合同款到帐,5月14号股票发力,连续七个停版,在25号放量加大,但在收市前股价微涨,本人已经30附近出货,但在下星期大家可以关注........庄家换手可能继续放量拉高股价.[em10][em03][em03][em03]5月30日,中国财政部提高证券交易印花税税率(由1‰调整为3‰)。从股指下跌的点位看并不惨烈,6月1日尾盘收在4000点,没有超越"2.27"大跌的程度。但这是股改之后中国股市第一次大规模地弥漫着"股灾"的心理阴影。这是前所未有的艰难时刻,对中国牛市的质疑、对泡沫的夸大、市场畸形化的不屑统统上演,密集得有如箭雨。 如果我们有勇气剥离缠绕在中国股市上的"股灾话语"和灾难预言家的唇舌、能够越过目前混乱的市场情绪和心理焦虑,而将目光投向迷糊不清的未来,理性启动我们的感知和判断,我们就会发现灾难预言家的悲观论和"中期大调整"是不理性的,它忽视甚至故意蒙蔽中国股市的土壤和基因。 支持中国股市成为一个伟大市场的基本面是中国的经济增长,这是一个被人无数次谈论和传播的说法。股市泡沫破灭往往出现在经济增长的拐点期或者加速衰退期,而中国GDP增长高达10%的强劲力量大大消除了股灾或者中期大调整的概率。我们不能因为股市的剧烈震荡就要否定这一命题。据相关报道,世界银行最近把对中国经济今年增速的预期从早先的9.6%提高到了10.4%。世行提高了对中国经济增速预期。 毫无疑问,此轮牛市始于"股改",股改形成的牛市在账面上已经使得国有资产增值高达8万多亿,这是一笔无法想像的巨大增值。由于政府承诺要照顾市场稳定和长远发展,国有股转让有时间限制,这就意味着,"股灾"和残酷的中期大调整都是不符合众多长远利益的。而中国政府是理性的,倡导和谐发展的,目标是建设和谐社会。因此我们要相信,政府不仅有能力打击国企内部人造成的国有资产流失,也有能力防止自身政策不当造成的国有资产流失。 另外,中国还有很多大型优质国有企业欲在中国A股市场上市,例如神华集团、中电信、中移动、中石油等等,它们的回归不仅分享中国资本市场的发展红利,同时也深化和优化中国资本市场的结构。由于它们盘子巨大,本身就带来很大的扩容压力,我们很难想像在股指2千多点的所谓"理性的、无泡沫的、跟国际市盈率接轨的点位"来迎接这一系列重大蓝筹的上市。 可见,既然政府承担着一系列的长远发展目标的话,我们就能够确定,政府出台印花税调整股市的基调:不是打击股市,或者是像一些灾难学家所说的"要挽回用加息、加准备金等手段调控股市'无面子'的尴尬",而是控制股市的炒作,增加炒作垃圾股的成本。但这一举动却被涂抹和篡改为"政府不愿意股市过热"和"要教训股民"。 印花税的出台造成"股市恐慌",也充分反映一些股民的不成熟,他们不仅喜欢投机、炒作垃圾股,而且还容易放大印花税信号后的恐怖,接纳无止境的流言和猜测,慌不择路地接纳资产缩水的痛苦。实际上,连相关部门官员都感到意外,一次正常的印花税调整酝酿出了类似于孔飞力"叫魂"机制(意指一场意外事件导致整体性恐慌)那样的信号失真和严厉冲击。 坦率地说,如果政府决心打击垃圾股炒作的话,有许多可行的方法,例如对ST股票的换手率或多日股票总涨幅或者均线突破指标进行限制,如果过了设定的红线,就对其进行突然性停牌交易,并且不承诺何时复牌。这种机动性的做法使得这些炒作中的股票的交易权利变得破碎而不完整。虽然这会遭到一些自由人士的攻击,这些人可能会打出平等主义的大旗。相比较而言,降低股票交易权利的做法则是局部的、精确制导的。这种做法既可以打击庄家炒作,降低黑幕交易,减少散户股民跟风的概率,它可以作为一个过渡性的政策,不仅保护了散户跟风型投资者,而且也制造和逐步培养了市场的理性认知,而这对于一个理性的、成熟的资本市场来说是必须的。 1、美特斯邦威:不跌寻常股 2、特步: 跌停,死一般的感觉 3、百事:跌停无极限 4、森马:上什么公司,跌什么票 5、脑白金:今年跌停不整人,要整只整老百姓 6、汇仁肾宝:他跌我也跌 7、李宁:跌停,一切皆有可能 8、旺旺:你跌,我跌,大家跌,跌跌 9、农夫山泉:跌停有点烦 10、好迪:大家跌,才是真的跌、 11、白加黑:上午跌蓝筹,不瞌睡;下午跌绩优,睡不着. 12、联想:股票不跌停,股市会怎么样 13、娃哈哈:妈妈~~我也要抄底! 14、清嘴:你知道跌停的味道吗? 15、安踏:我抄底,我喜欢! 16、NIKE:Just 抄 it! 17、钙中钙:现在的跌停啊,它含金量高,跌一天顶过去五天,实惠!你瞧我,一口气跌了5天,不反弹 5月30日... 大家一起停吧..... [RM=490,350]http://www.shzgptz.cn/shzgptz.swf[/RM] [MP=490,350]http://www.shzgptz.cn/shzgptz.swf[/MP]
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[mid]http://www.shzgptz.cn/shzgptz.swf[/mid] [mp3]http://www.shzgptz.cn/shzgptz.swf[/mp3] [wma][wmv]http://www.shzgptz.cn/shzgptz.swf[/wmv][/wma]gfgf 2006.05.31 证券简称最新价涨跌幅(%) 涨跌 上证指数 4109.65 ↑1.40 56.57 深证成指 12944.23 ↑2.51 317.08
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<table class="mod_biankuang" id="zoom" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" nowrap="nowrap" align="center" width="12">&nbsp;</td><td style="WORD-BREAK: break-all; WORD-WRAP: break-word;"><span class="link">关于杭萧合理估价及投资收益的详细分析</span><br/><span style="FONT-SIZE: 16px;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">假设安国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">344</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿合同分三年完成,自做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">250</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,平均净利润率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">5%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">(比前三年平均值提高一倍左右,主要是得益于厂房、设备、人员等资源利用率的大幅提高),外包</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">94</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,收取</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的管理费(相当于纯利)。国内项目按年均增长率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">计算,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">22</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">26</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">31</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿。目前两市平均市盈率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">40</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">倍左右,建筑行业市盈率约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">70</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">倍,取两者平均值</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">55</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">倍计算。以下分别按安国项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">100%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">完成率和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">50%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">完成率计算如下:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">一、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年估价及投资收益</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、假设安国项目完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,则自做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,外包</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">19</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿;国内项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">22</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,则净利润为:(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">50+22</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">*5%+19*1%=3.79</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.53</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">合理估价为:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.53*55=85</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、假设安国项目只完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,则自做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,外包</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">9.5</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿;国内项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">22</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,则净利润为:(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">25+22</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">*5%+9.5*1%=2.45</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">合理估价为:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1*55=55</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">当年每股红利:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1~1.5</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元,相当于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">送</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">送</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">派</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p>
                                        </span><br/></td></tr></tbody></table>
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发表于 2007-5-27 15:04:00 | 显示全部楼层
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">二、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年估价及投资收益</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、假设安国项目完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">40%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,则自做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">100</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,外包</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">38</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿;国内项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">26</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,则净利润为:(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">100+26</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">*5%+38*1%=6.68</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2.70</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">合理估价为:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2.70*55=150</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、假设安国项目只完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,则自做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,外包</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">19</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿;国内项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">26</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,则净利润为:(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">50+26</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">*5%+19*1%=3.99</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.62</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">合理估价为:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.62*55=90</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">当年每股红利:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.6~2.7</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元,相当于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">送</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">派</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">送</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">派</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">17</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元。</span><br/></p>
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发表于 2007-5-27 15:05:00 | 显示全部楼层
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">三、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年估价及投资收益</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、假设安国项目完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">40%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,则自做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">100</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,外包</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">38</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿;国内项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">31</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,则净利润为:(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">100+31</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">*5%+38*1%=6.93</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2.80</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">合理估价为:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2.80*55=155</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、假设安国项目只完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,则自做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,外包</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">19</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿;国内项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">31</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,则净利润为:(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">50+31</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">*5%+19*1%=4.24</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亿,即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.72</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">合理估价为:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.72*55=95</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">当年每股红利:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.7~2.8</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元,相当于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">送</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">派</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">7</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">送</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">派</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">18</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">综上分析,杭萧合理的价格区间为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">55~155</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元,在此基础上还可以获得每年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1~2.8</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">股的投资收益。以上分析只是建立在上述假设的基础上,其准确性受到安国项目完成率、国内业务增长率以及业务净利润率等诸多因素的影响。当然,如果钢结构行业和杭萧本身前景看好,不排除市场给予更高估价的可能。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: #666666; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">本帖内容纯属作者个人观点,仅供投资者参考,并不构成投资建议。据此操作,风险自担</span>
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发表于 2007-5-30 23:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
<p>哈哈.版猪好厉害啊,顶下</p><p>&nbsp;</p>[em02][em02][em02]
汕头人自己的社交APP正式上线了!!!在苹果和安卓手机上的各应用市场搜索 蓝色河畔 方可安装!
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